Local Elections Vote Shares: the BBC PNS and Rallings & Thrasher NEV compared
After repeating the mantra that local elections are local, the overall performances of the main parties at local elections are often discussed by journalists and others. This commentary tends to focus...
View ArticleWhat do the polls tell us about local election results?
While some ask what local election results tell us about the state of the parties and prospects for the next general election, it is also important to consider how national party popularity affects the...
View ArticleLocal elections vote share (PNS) and general election vote intention
The graph below shows the BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) from local elections together with general election vote intention from the polls for the month before each round of local...
View ArticleLocal Elections 2013: PNS in historical perspective
The graph below shows the 2013 Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) from the local elections together with previous PNS figures. It shows just how dramatic the change is. This is the first time...
View ArticleWhy didn’t UKIP win so many seats given they got so many votes?
UKIP did extraordinarily well in yesterday’s local elections, securing a projected national share of the vote of 23%. At the time of writing they have won over 120 council seats; much more than...
View ArticleLocal Elections 2013: Why did UKIP do so well?
With 23% on the PNS, and 147 seats, UKIP did shockingly well in this year’s local elections. Why? There’s lots of good analysis of UKIP voters, especially by Rob Ford. Factors leading people to vote...
View ArticleLocal Elections 2013: UKIP hurt Labour at least as much as the Tories...
Since the local elections last week discussion in the media has focused mainly on the impact of UKIP success on the Conservatives and how they will react. But compared with last year’s local elections...
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